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Abstract
Several studies showed that the breast cancer incidence rates are higher in high-income (developed) countries, due to the link of breast cancer with several risk factors and the presence of systematic screening policies. Some of the authors suggest that lower breast cancer incidence rates in low-income (developing) countries probably reflect international variation in hormonal factors and accessibility to early detection facilities. Recent studies showed that the breast cancer increased rapidly among women in Pakistan (a developing country) and it became the first malignancy among females of Pakistan. Although, the incidence rates may contain important evidence for understanding and control of the disease; however in Pakistan, the breast cancer incidence data have never been available in the last five decades since independence; rather, only hospital-based data are available. In this study, we intend to apply Functional Time Series (FTS) models to the breast cancer incidence rates of United State (developed country), and to see the difference between various components (age and time) of Functional Time Series (FTS) models applied independently on the breast cancer incidence rates of Karachi (Pakistan) and US. Past studies have already suggested that the incidence of US breast cancer cases was expected to increase in the coming decades. A progressive increase in the number of new cases is already predetermined by the high birth rate that occurred during the middle part of the century, and it will lead to nearly a doubling in the number of cases in about 4 decades. We also obtain 15 years predictions of breast cancer incidence rates in United States and compare them with the forecasts of incidence curves for Karachi. Development of methods for cancer incidence trend forecasting can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources between the need for development of new treatments and the need for new research directed toward primary preventive measures.
Highlights
The carcinoma of breast is a highly heterogeneous disorder, in both etiologically and genetically manners
Several studies showed that the breast cancer incidence rates are higher in developed countries, due to its links with several risk factors [25] and the presence of systematic screening policies [26]
It is observed a decreasing trend occurred in incidence rates since 2003 due to the decreasing use of Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) [27]
Summary
The carcinoma of breast is a highly heterogeneous disorder, in both etiologically and genetically manners. 1.38 million new breast cancer cases were diagnosed in 2008 for such commonly occurring cancer worldwide. The incidence rate of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 50 new cancer cases per 100,000 women per year [2] [3]. In the United States, it has been found that about 60% of patients have benign breast disease while only 10% have cancer among them [5]. Breast cancer is the most common cause of death in females in Pakistan while in US, it has been superseded by lung cancer [8]. According to [12], approximately 231,840 new cases of invasive breast cancer were expected in the United States in 2015.
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