Modeling both of the number of pausibacillary and multibacillary leprosy patients by using bivariate poisson regression

Abstract

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by bacteria of leprosy (Mycobacterium leprae). Leprosy has become an important thing in Indonesia because its morbidity is quite high. Based on WHO data in 2014, in 2012 Indonesia has the highest number of new leprosy patients after India and Brazil with a contribution of 18.994 people (8.7% of the world). This number makes Indonesia automatically placed as the country with the highest number of leprosy morbidity of ASEAN countries. The province that most contributes to the number of leprosy patients in Indonesia is East Java. There are two kind of leprosy. They consist of pausibacillary and multibacillary. The morbidity of multibacillary leprosy is higher than pausibacillary leprosy. This paper will discuss modeling both of the number of multibacillary and pausibacillary leprosy patients as responses variables. These responses are count variables, so modeling will be conducted by using bivariate poisson regression method. Unit experiment used is in East Java, and predictors involved are: environment, demography, and poverty. The model uses data in 2012, and the result indicates that all predictors influence significantly.