Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms: The case of Greece

Abstract

Abstract This study examines the supply response of the Greek beef market and the possible effect of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the Greek beef sector during the period 1993–2005. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process is used to estimate expected price, and price volatility, while several different symmetric, asymmetric and non-linear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results show that price volatility and feed price are important risk factors in the supply response function, while the negative asymmetric price volatility that was detected implies that producers have a weak market position. Furthermore, the empirical findings confirm that the annual premium paid by the EU to beef producers had a positive impact on the production level and also, the change of the EU price support regime, after 2006, is having negative effects on beef production level in Greece.