Modeling And Spatial Analysis Of Change Settlement And Fair Market Land Price Using Markov Chain Model In Banyumanik District

Abstract

Banyumanik District is located on the outskirts of Semarang with very rapid development. Indicated with the many changes in land that occur, due to the construction of settlements and other physical buildings continues to increase. Changes in land use will also be followed by changes in market land prices. These changes will continue in line with the increasing number and activities of the population in carrying out economic, social and cultural life. Most of the studies was conducted to analyze changes in future land use are based on the use of a model. Land use modeling changes is a method or approach that can be used to understand the causes and effects of these dynamic changes. The Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network and Markov Chain methods are used in this study to determine which locations or areas of land use are vacant land and agriculture has the potential to change into settlements and test the predictive ability that will be produced by the model. The driving factor for land use change as an input model consists of distance to the road, distance to the area experiencing changes in land use, slope, elevation and fair market land prices. This study aims to (1) predict settlement and its changes in Banyumanik District using High Resolution Satellite Image in 2011-2019, (2) build a model of settlement land use change with the Markov Chain methods and (3) projection of Banyumanik District land use in 2028.