Modeling and Simulation on Complex System Life Cycle Risk Dynamic Evolution

Abstract

* Corresponding author Abstract—Complex system life cycle management is system engineering involving high technology, high investment and high risk. This paper studied risk evolution and risk level distributions on different stages during complex system life cycle. Taking into account risk propagation and feedback influence, the risk evolution of complex system life cycle was modeled based on system dynamics. The risk levels distributed on all stages of system life cycle were simulated by system dynamic model. The simulation results are helpful to understand that the initial stages of life cycle are more flexible and valuable to change for risk management. Additionally, sensitivity analysis illuminates that different system types of risk have different risk distributions among stages of life cycle and hereby different emphasis of risk management during life cycle should be considered according to different system types of risk.