Modeling and simulation of voluntary employee turnover using catastrophe theory: A case study on a manufacturing enterprise in China

Abstract

The Lewisian turning-point obviously increase the labor costs of Chinese manufacturing firms, it made the employee turnover to become the key problem that how to keep the enterprise human resource stability. Here, the conceptual catastrophe model of employee turnover is built from the new perspective of empirical study and catastrophe theory. In particular, we developed a parameter estimation method of the Cusp catastrophe model based on qualitative simulation and fuzzy math, and then to demonstrate the rationality and robustness of this method by a practical case on a manufacturing enterprise. In the end, a series of virtual experiments are carried out for the employee turnover in the period of China’s economic transformation. The main results are that, how to measure the warning, critical and mutation area of employee turnover; the real relationship between the complex economic environment and the demission of employees; the control policy from the macroscopic governmental measures and microscopic enterprise ways.