Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting the health system and economy of more than 200 countries worldwide. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological tendencies of an epidemic and to develop methods for controlling it. In this work, we use a mathematical model perspective to study the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. The real-time updated data from March 2, 2020, to January 8, 2021, were collected from the Saudi Ministry of Health, aiming to provide dynamic behaviors of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. During this period, 363,692 people were infected, resulting in 6293 deaths, with a mortality rate of 1.73%. There was a weak positive relationship between the spread of infection and mortality R 2 = 0.459 . We used the susceptible-exposed-infection-recovered (SEIR) model, a logistic growth model, with a special focus on the exposed, infected, and recovered individuals to simulate the final phase of the outbreak. The results indicate that social distancing, hygienic conditions, and travel limitations are crucial measures to prevent further spread of the epidemic.
Highlights
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that have spread among humans, animals, and livestock. e virus may spread from animals, such as bats, to humans through various intermediate hosts and cause severe respiratory syndrome [1]. ey generally cause mild respiratory infections, dry cough, fever, and difficulty in breathing
We illustrate the simulated results of susceptible, exposed, confirmed, and recovery cases by applying the proposed SEIR model starting from May 1, 2020, until January 8, 2021. e predicted cases from the model were compared with the actual data
The logistic growth model was used to predict the future dynamics of the outbreak in Saudi Arabia
Summary
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that have spread among humans, animals, and livestock. e virus may spread from animals, such as bats, to humans through various intermediate hosts and cause severe respiratory syndrome [1]. ey generally cause mild respiratory infections, dry cough, fever, and difficulty in breathing. E virus may spread from animals, such as bats, to humans through various intermediate hosts and cause severe respiratory syndrome [1]. The WHO released a wide range of interim guidance for all countries on how to prepare for and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, which included a strategy and plan on how to monitor potentially infected people and collect and test samples and practical guidance on how to manage patients and control and mitigate the burden of infection in health centers. On February 12, 2020, the WHO named the 2019-nCoV as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was adopted as the official designation. E WHO officially declared the outbreak as a global pandemic because of the rapid spread of the virus to approximately 220 countries and territories around the world [7] On February 12, 2020, the WHO named the 2019-nCoV as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was adopted as the official designation. e WHO officially declared the outbreak as a global pandemic because of the rapid spread of the virus to approximately 220 countries and territories around the world [7]
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