Modeling and prediction of dengue cases in the short and long term in Villa Clara, Cuba using climatic variables and objective regressive regression

Carlos M Campos Sánchez Carlos M Campos Sánchez,Isbety Acosta Escanaverino Isbety Acosta Escanaverino,Rigoberto Fimia Duarte Rigoberto Fimia Duarte,David Del Valle Laveaga David Del Valle Laveaga,Daniel Rodríguez Hurtado Daniel Rodríguez Hurtado,Laura A Guillen León Laura A Guillen León,Rolando J Morales Guerra Rolando J Morales Guerra,Frank M Wilford González Frank M Wilford González,Ricardo Osés Rodríguez Ricardo Osés Rodríguez

doi:10.30574/gscbps.2022.18.3.0090

Carlos M Campos Sánchez Carlos M Campos Sánchez, Isbety Acosta Escanaverino Isbety Acosta Escanaverino + Show 7 more

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https://doi.org/10.30574/gscbps.2022.18.3.0090

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Abstract

Climate has an important influence on infectious diseases and their different modes of transmission. Dengue is among the most relevant for Cuban public health. Due to the pronounced effect that environmental changes can have on the biology of Aedes aegypti, it is very likely that the epidemiology of this arbovirosis will be profoundly influenced by future climate change. The aim of the study was to analyze the possible relationship between meteorological variables and the incidence of Dengue in Villa Clara province, Cuba during the years 2017-2020, and to perform a predictive model of the behavior of the disease during 2021. Retrospective research was carried out in which the possible effects of diversifications of temperature, precipitation, humidity, water vapor tension, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, cloudiness and saturation deficit on the deviations in the epidemiological curves of Dengue infection in Villa Clara (2017-2020) were analyzed to predict the future behavior of the referred entity during the current year. A correlation of the infectious entity with minimum temperature (R=0.332; p=0.023) and water vapor tension (R=0.298; p=0.042) was obtained, as well as an inverse relationship with atmospheric pressure (R=-0.317; p=0.030). It is concluded that a predictive model was obtained for 2021 with high reliability, in which a decrease in the incidence of Dengue is predicted in the month of March until July, but after August to December the values will increase greatly.

Highlights

Due to the pronounced effect that environmental changes can have on the biology of Aedes aegypti, it is very likely that the epidemiology of this arbovirosis will be profoundly influenced by future climate change
Dengue is an infectious disease transmitted mainly by the bite of the Aedes aegypti mosquito (Linnaeus, 1762) [1-3], transmission has been reported from other species, such as Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1894) [3-5]
Data corresponding to the number of Dengue cases in Villa Clara province were used

Summary

Introduction

Dengue is an infectious disease transmitted mainly by the bite of the Aedes aegypti mosquito (Linnaeus, 1762) [1-3], transmission has been reported from other species, such as Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1894) [3-5]. The origin of the term Dengue is not entirely clear. Perhaps the Swahili word "dinga" or "dyenga" homonym of Swahili "Ki denga pepo" (meaning sudden attack brought on by an "evil spirit") The first potential record of a case of dengue, comes from a Chinese medical encyclopedia of the Jin Dynasty from 265 to 420 but the first definitive case report dates from 1789, and is attributed to Benjamin Rush, who coined the term "break bone fever", because of the Corresponding author: Rigoberto Fimia Duarte Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing (FTSE), University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UCM-VC), Cuba. Dengue fever is currently considered a public health problem in the world, especially in tropical countries where the influences of environmental variables favor the increase of cases every year [2, 3, 5, 9] According to a historical account of the presence of dengue fever in the Americas, the disease may have first appeared in 1635 in Martinique and Guadeloupe, but the disease was identified and named as such in 1779 [3, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13].

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