Modeling and Predicting the Environment State in the Impact Area of a Copper–Nickel Plant: A Balanced Model of the Transformations of Atmospheric Deposition at the Catchment and in Lake

Abstract

The paper discusses modeling the dynamics of nickel concentration in soils, water, and the bottom sediments of lakes caused by atmospheric emissions from the Pechenganickel plant, Kola Peninsula, throughout its whole operation period. The applied technology of balanced identification makes it possible to use a mathematical description of heterogeneous geochemical processes in ecosystems to combine heterogeneous experimental data and build up a computer model with an optimal balance of its complexity and fitting quality of the data. The model is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of natural objects in the zone of distribution of atmospheric pollution (nickel) from the Pechenganickel plant. The paper presents and discusses results of this study, including estimates of the retrospective state of the simulated objects (before the start of the intense studies) and a forecast of their dynamics until 2030. According to the model calculations, the intensity of Ni accumulation in the soil and bottom sediments was 2.35 and 4.48 mg/(m2 year) during the maximum deposition periods (1980–2005), whereas the model predicts a decrease in the intensity of Ni accumulation in the bottom sediments (0.23 mg/(m2 year)) and slow Ni leaching from the soil (0.19 mg/(m2 year)) after the shutdown of the plant.