Modeling and Predicting the Egyptian Pound's Exchange Rate Per the American Dollar on a Short-Term Scale by Using ARIMA – Probability Distributions

Abstract

A time series is an ordered sequence of data points that are chronologically indexed. By evaluating the values in a time series both presently and retrospectively, it is possible to predict the future values of most time series with a reasonable degree of accuracy. In this paper modeling of Egyptian pound exchange rate per US dollar in the short term by using the ARIMA model and many probability distributions. The ARIMA is the best ARIMA that assumed in this study in modeling the data set of the exchange rate of the pound in Egypt per US dollar and the Burr probability distribution is the best probability distribution in modeling the same data set.