Modeling and Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Population Dynamics in Uganda

Abstract

Keeping track of the human population is essential for proper planning for facilities such as healthcare, infrastructure, education, and other essential needs. There are various ways by which the government can ensure that service provision is improved and maintained for its citizens and very often this starts by knowing the changes in demography as a function of time.In this work mathematical modeling and simulations are used to study the population dynamics of Uganda. The models are used for prediction of the county’s population and how its dynamics changes in time. Parameter sensitivity analysis was performed using population census data and the results shows huge influence of variations of the model parameters. The results show that the difference between the per capita birth and death rate parameters is crucial for changes in the country’s population. Such findings can also be analogously applied to countries with a similar population structure and economy.