Abstract
Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence is key for improved forest fires management, particularly under global change scenarios. Very few studies have attempted to relate satellite-based aboveground biomass maps of moderate spatial resolution to spatial fire occurrence under a variety of climatic and vegetation conditions. This study focuses on modeling and mapping fire occurrence based on fire suppression data from 2005–2015 from aboveground biomass—expressed as aboveground carbon density (AGCD)—for the main ecoregions in Mexico. Our results showed that at each ecoregion, unimodal or humped relationships were found between AGCD and fire occurrence, which might be explained by varying constraints of fuel and climate limitation to fire activity. Weibull equations successfully fitted the fire occurrence distributions from AGCD, with the lowest fit for the desert shrub-dominated north region that had the lowest number of observed fires. The models for predicting fire occurrence from AGCD were significantly different by region, with the exception of the temperate forest in the northwest and northeast regions that could be modeled with a single Weibull model. Our results suggest that AGCD could be used to estimate spatial fire occurrence maps; those estimates could be integrated into operational GIS tools for assistance in fire danger mapping and fire and fuel management decision-making. Further investigation of anthropogenic drivers of fire occurrence and fuel characteristics should be considered for improving the operational spatial planning of fire management. The modeling strategy presented here could be replicated in other countries or regions, based on remote-sensed measurements of aboveground biomass and fire activity or fire suppression records.
Highlights
Forest fires have a cascade effect on the carbon cycle, directly through emissions [1,2] and indirectly through post-fire decomposition, soil impacts and change in productivity and post-fire vegetation trajectories with their associated subsequent C sequestration abilities [3,4]
The current study presents the first available map for fire occurrence based on aboveground carbon density in Mexico
The results support the hypothesis of fuel limitation—which explains a substantial part of fire occurrence in the most arid regions—and climate limitation for the wetter regions
Summary
Forest fires have a cascade effect on the carbon cycle, directly through emissions [1,2] and indirectly through post-fire decomposition, soil impacts and change in productivity and post-fire vegetation trajectories with their associated subsequent C sequestration abilities [3,4]. Land management and forest fire management, altering fuel properties and fire regimes, are considered key human instruments to influence the carbon cycle and buffer the climate change impact on fire regimes [5]. Climate change is projected to result in increased fire risk in various global ecosystems [6,7,8] and carbon storage in forests may help mitigate the future emission of greenhouse gases [9,10] the increase in biomass accumulation needs to be offset with the corresponding hazard increase [11]. The biomass accumulation from reduced management of forests and fire exclusion could result in larger and more severe wildfires, resulting in greater losses of natural, economic and human resources [3,13,14]. Reducing biomass quantity and modifying their structure are the only physical parameter that humans can manage to reduce the adverse impacts of forest fires, including C emissions [11,15,16,17]
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