Abstract

To forecast the spread tendency of the COVID-19 in China and provide effective strategies to prevent the disease, an improved SEIR model was established. The parameters of our model were estimated based on collected data that were issued by the National Health Commission of China (NHCC) from January 10 to March 3. The model was used to forecast the spread tendency of the disease. The key factors influencing the epidemic were explored through modulation of the parameters, including the removal rate, the average number of the infected contacting the susceptible per day and the average number of the exposed contacting the susceptible per day. The correlation of the infected is 99.9% between established model data in this study and issued data by NHCC from January 10 to February 15. The correlation of the removed, the death and the cured are 99.8%, 99.8% and 99.6%, respectively. The average forecasting error rates of the infected, the removed, the death and the cured are 0.78%, 0.75%, 0.35% and 0.83%, respectively, from February 16 to March 3. The peak time of the epidemic forecast by our established model coincided with the issued data by NHCC. Therefore, our study established a mathematical model with high accuracy. The aforementioned parameters significantly affected the trend of the epidemic, suggesting that the exposed and the infected population should be strictly isolated. If the removal rate increases to 0.12, the epidemic will come to an end on May 25. In conclusion, the proposed mathematical model accurately forecast the spread tendency of COVID-19 in China and the model can be applied for other countries with appropriate modifications.

Highlights

  • COVID-19 is an emergent infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV

  • 4 Discussion Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 and no vaccine or effective treatment being available for the epidemic, it has been declared by the World Health Organization as an “international public health emergency”

  • In order to scientifically forecast the spread tendency of the disease, we established a mathematical model on COVID-19

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Summary

Introduction

COVID-19 is an emergent infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV. It was first detected in Wuhan, China in December of 2019 [1, 2]. From the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, it has spread across China and beyond. By March 3, 2020, 80270 infection cases have been confirmed and 2981 death cases have been reported. Patients with confirmed COVID-19 are the main sources of infection, and asymptomatic patients are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection. Respiratory droplets and contact transmission are considered to be the most important routes of transmission of 2019-nCoV. The population is generally susceptible to the infection disease [3], and the elderly and those

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