Modeling and forecasting the early evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil

Saulo B Bastos,Daniel O Cajueiro

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-76257-1

Saulo B Bastos, Daniel O Cajueiro

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76257-1

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Journal: Scientific Reports	Publication Date: Nov 10, 2020
Citations: 153	License type: open-access

Affiliation: Universidade de Brasília

Abstract

We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of infected people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to flatten the spread of the disease. We use two variations of the SIR model and we include a parameter that comprises the effects of social distancing measures. Short and long term forecasts show that the social distancing policy imposed by the government is able to flatten the pattern of infection of the COVID-19. However, our results also show that if this policy does not last enough time, it is only able to shift the peak of infection into the future keeping the value of the peak in almost the same value. Furthermore, our long term simulations forecast the optimal date to end the policy. Finally, we show that the proportion of asymptomatic individuals affects the amplitude of the peak of symptomatic infected, suggesting that it is important to test the population.

Highlights

We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020
Our study focuses on the early period of the pandemics that accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of infected people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to flatten the spread of the disease
We show that: (1) the social distancing policy imposed by the government is able to flatten the pattern of contamination provided by the COVID-19; (2) there is an optimal date for abandoning the social distancing policy; (3) short-term social distancing policies only shift the peak of infection into the future keeping the value of the peak in almost the same value

Summary

Introduction

We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of infected people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to flatten the spread of the disease. Our study focuses on the early period of the pandemics that accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of infected people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to flatten the spread of the disease. Let γ be the recovery rate, which is the rate that infected individuals recover or die, leaving the infected class, at constant per capita probability per unit of time

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