Abstract
In this paper, we are trying first to exhibit why – paradoxically – the local economic performance is not able to explain the regional vote in France. In a second time, we build a Political Economy model (pooled time series), testing voting for regional incumbents and Front National as well. It turns out that the regional vote is influenced mainly by economical and political forces such as unemployment, the credibility of the President (or the Prime minister) and local political strongholds. Then we generate a forecast for the next 2010 elections.
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