Modeling and Forecasting Population Reproduction in Russia with Regard to Changes in Demographic Behavior during COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The article provides models and forecasts built on their basis dealing with population reproduction in the Russian Federation up to 2050 with due regard to changes in demographic behavior during COVID-19 pandemic. Three scenarios of demographic behavior are studied: optimistic, realistic and pessimistic. Possible changes in age and gender structure of the population were analyzed and a conclusion was drawn that the principle population growth up to 2050 will be achieved at the expense of labour migration, mainly from CIS countries. Prospects of the DemProg of the ‘Spectrum’ system for implementing forecasts in the field of population with regard to interaction between demographic behavior indicators and impact of social and demographic policy steps were demonstrated. The author put forward a model of population reproduction that took into account the excess death rate due to COVID-19.