Modeling and forecasting of wheat of South Asian region countries and role in food security

Abstract

Wheat is the most important source of food on earth and vital for food safety. It contains 75–80% carbohydrates, 9–18% protein, fiber, many vitamins (especially B vitamins), calcium, iron, and many macronutrients and micronutrients. According to data from the International Grain Council (IGC), wheat has continued to be the most important food grain source for humans in the world. Therefore, determining wheat production behavior has a very important role in food security. In this study, we have modeled and forecasted the production of wheat for 6 years from 2020 to 2025 using ARIMA and Holt’s linear trend models in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, which are all countries in the South Asian region. Since there is an expectation of a decrease in wheat production in some of these countries, this study can provide these countries with the information they need to take appropriate decisions to prevent the occurrence of food problems in the future and to help deal with food security. Moreover, this projection helps with policy implications and planning.