Modeling and Forecasting of Socio-Economic Development of the Region

doi:10.32861/jssr.spi5.404.410

Abstract

The article is devoted to the modeling and forecasting of socio-economic development of the region. The dependence of GRP per capita of the Belgorod region on the average annual number of employed in the economy, the consolidated budget revenues, the volume of innovative works and services, the consumer price index, the industrial production index, the balanced financial result, exports was established. The analysis of the matrix of pair correlation coefficients of the selected indicators allowed to choose as the most significant explanatory variables the consolidated budget revenues and the average annual number of employees in the economy. The models of socio-economic development of the region were built. The quality of the models was evaluated. It was revealed that the most accurate is the power regression model. The forecast of further changes in GRP per capita was built on the basis of the retrospective analysis data. The method of extrapolation based on the construction of trend models for each explanatory variable was used to carry out the forecast.

Highlights

The oil emergency was one of the greatest variables driving some oil utilization and industrialized nations, for example, the US and Britain into a retreat that kept going over a year
The history rehashed itself, when Iranian oil interfered with the creation of the Iranian transformation, trailed by the Iraq-Iran war, which prompted taking off oil costs in 1979– 80
This study evaluated the impact of oil price fluctuations in Iraq on human capital development index using the EGRACH model and the ARDL bound test method

Summary

Introduction

The oil emergency was one of the greatest variables driving some oil utilization and industrialized nations, for example, the US and Britain into a retreat that kept going over a year. The history rehashed itself, when Iranian oil interfered with the creation of the Iranian transformation, trailed by the Iraq-Iran war, which prompted taking off oil costs in 1979– 80. This time, notwithstanding supply stuns, oil costs ascended because of foreseen supply deficiencies and rising worldwide interest, as inventories request Increased. Value stuns have majorly affected US total national output, and the US economy has dove into subsidence. The sharp changes in oil costs have assumed a vital job in pushing the economy into retreat and even the crumple of the administration. Financial specialists and worldwide policymakers are firmly following the oil value slant (Dogah, 2015)

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Conclusion