Modeling And Forecasting Of Russian Foreign Economic Activity Indicators: Econometric Approach

Abstract

For Russia, an effective foreign economic activity could turn into one of the major drivers of economic growth alongside with investments in fixed capital and human capital. Being an integral part of foreign economic activity, export represents the way to raise money for Russian budget. It indicates the state of the country's economy and needs constant monitoring of the main trends and dynamics of its development for timely adjustment of foreign economic policy. In this paper, econometric models of export of goods by time series in monthly dynamics are constructed. At the stage of preliminary analysis, time series of dependent and independent variables were studied for the seasonal component and the order of integration. To account for structural shifts caused by economic crises, dummy variables were included in the model. The hypothesis of structural instability in the export time series was tested using the Chow test. Based on the modeling results, a high degree of dependence of exports on the dollar exchange rate and prices for energy resources was confirmed. Retail trade turnover, the volume of paid services, and the unemployment rate also have a significant impact on the export of goods. With the constructed models, the forecast for exports of goods with seasonal adjustments for December 2020 and January 2021 was made. The method applied in this paper allows both identifying factors that affect the export of goods and its elements, and taking into account possible structural shifts associated with economic, political crises and pandemic.