Modeling and forecasting of Neopanamax vessel transit time for traffic management in the Panama Canal

Abstract

In response to an increased reliance on bigger, Neopanamax-sized vessels for shipping, the Panama Canal has been expanded. Whilst the way that vessels transit the newly expanded canal has stayed the same, maneuvering operations have changed. As a result, transit times have been affected. In accordance with the size and cargo of vessels, canal navigation rules restrict how access channels (Culebra Cut, Gatun Lake, and seaways) and new locks (Cocoli and Agua Clara) are used. Larger sized, Neopanamax vessels will benefit most from the expanded canal. Since the canal opened on 26 June 2016, data on transit times have been gathered. With these data, a thorough statistical analysis should be carried out. The most influential variables on overall time in transit (TET), such as pilot skill and Culebra Cut or Gatun Lake transit times, are identified. Formulae based on multivariate linear regression can be extracted that will make it possible to establish a conductive methodology for estimating the transit time of a Neopanamax vessel. Taking into account the results of the statistical analysis, a proposal is included for improving Neopanamax traffic management, with views to reduce the TET, from a transit policy point of view. This is the first work in scientific literature that analyzes in detail, from qualitative and statistical approaches, the total time in transit through the set of navigable routes and locks that compose the new expanded Panama Canal.