Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic, environmental and lifestyle variables

Abstract

AbstractTraditional stochastic mortality models tend to extrapolate, to focus on identifying trends in mortality without explaining them. Those that do link mortality with other variables usually limit themselves to GDP. This article presents a novel stochastic mortality model that incorporates a wide range of variables related to economic, environmental and lifestyle factors to predict mortality. The model uses principal components derived from these variables, extending the Niu and Melenberg (Demography 51(5):1755–1773, 2014) model to variables other than GDP, and is applied to 37 countries from the Human Mortality Database. Model fit is superior to the Lee–Carter model for 18 countries. The forecasting accuracy of the proposed model is better than that of the Niu–Melenberg model for half of the countries analyzed under various jump-off years. The model highlights the importance of economic prosperity and healthy lifestyle choices in improving lifespan, while the effect of environmental variables is mixed. By clarifying the specific contributions of different factors and thus making trade-offs explicit, the model is designed to facilitate scenario building and policy planning.