Abstract
This study aims to investigate and forecast Saudi Arabia's industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. By applying structural time series modeling to annual data from 1990 to 2019, we find the electricity demand's long-run income and price elasticities to vary across regions. Also, the underlying energy demand trend analysis indicates efficiency improvements in industrial electricity consumption patterns in all regions. In the low-case scenario, we project the 2030 demand to be 11.6 terawatt-hours (TWh), 63.5 TWh, 0.7 TWh, and 6.8 TWh for the central, eastern, southern, and western operation areas, respectively, with the total demand forecast to be 82.5 TWh. The study's findings can help policymakers understand the effect of future energy policies and economic growth trajectories.
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