Modeling and Forecasting End-Use Energy Consumption for Residential Buildings in Kuwait Using a Bottom-Up Approach

Turki Alajmi,Patrick Phelan

doi:10.3390/en13081981

Abstract

To meet the rapid-growing demand for electricity in Kuwait, utility planners need to be informed on the energy consumption to implement energy efficiency measures to manage sustainable load growth and avoid the high costs of increasing generation capacities. The first step of forecasting the future energy profile is to establish a baseline for Kuwait (i.e., a business-as-usual reference scenario where no energy efficiency incentives were given and the adoption of energy efficient equipment is purely market-driven). This paper presents an investigation of creating a baseline end-use energy profile until 2040 for the residential sector in Kuwait by using a bottom-up approach. The forecast consists of mainly two steps: (1) Forecasting the quantity of the residential energy-consuming equipment in the entire sector until 2040 where this paper used a stock-and-flow model that accounted for the income level, electrification, and urbanization rate to predict the quantify of the equipment over the years until 2040, and (2) calculate the unit energy consumption (UEC) for all equipment types using a variety of methods including EnergyPlus simulation models for cooling equipment. By combining the unit energy consumption and quantity of the equipment over the years, this paper established a baseline energy use profile for different end-use equipment for Kuwait until 2040. The results showed that the air conditioning loads accounted for 67% of residential electrical consumption and 72% of residential peak demand in Kuwait. The highest energy consuming appliances were refrigerators and freezers. Additionally, the air conditioning loads are expected to rise in the future, with an average annual growth rate of 2.9%, whereas the lighting and water heating loads are expected to rise at a much lower rate.

Highlights

Kuwait has experienced a steady increase in its population since the 1960s, with the turn of the century, an exponential rise has been observed as per Figure 1 [1]
Aside from the high population growth and rise in new construction, Kuwait has a high energy use per capita, as shown in Figure 2 [3], which is mainly driven by the heavy subsidization of the cost of electricity
Household appliances included in the analysis consist of televisions (TV), personal computers (PC), washers, irons, microwave, refrigerator, freezer, water cooler, and dryers

Summary

Introduction

Kuwait has experienced a steady increase in its population since the 1960s, with the turn of the century, an exponential rise has been observed as per Figure 1 [1]. This steep increase, along with economic growth, has resulted in higher electrical consumption, exceeding approximately 30 TWh per annum since 2000, whereas the highest level in the 1980s was less than 10 TWh [2]. Aside from the high population growth and rise in new construction, Kuwait has a high energy use per capita, as shown in Figure 2 [3], which is mainly driven by the heavy subsidization of the cost of electricity.

Methods

Results

Conclusion