Modeling and data choices sway conclusions about climate-conflict links

Abstract

In an era of growing concern about the human impacts of climate change, the academic and policy communities are paying increasing attention to the possible link between weather anomalies and violent conflict. Early research papers on the topic by Burke et al. (1) and the reanalysis and extension of their work by Buhaug (2) claim contradictory findings, the first showing a link between increased temperatures and war, and the second—using an expanded dataset and different models—calling these results into question. Hsiang and Meng (3) reexamine the data and argue that the original Burke et al. (1) conclusions are robust and remain a “benchmark” for future studies of the climate–conflict relationship.