Abstract
BackgroundA novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused huge damage to public health around the world. Revealing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and control efficiency is important for containing the spread of the virus.MethodsBy using a logistic growth model, we estimated the transmission parameters of COVID-19 in China and six other countries (Republic of Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain, France and Germany). The transmission parameters represent the maximum daily increase rate in the early stages of the epidemic and the control efficiency under human intervention. The control efficiency was determined by the significant decrease of the daily increase rate in time and cumulative cases.ResultsWe found the daily increase rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 decreased significantly in both time and cumulative cases in all countries, but the decreasing trend was not further reduced in other countries except for China and Republic of Korea. The response of the daily increase rate to control measures was much earlier than the number of new cases.ConclusionsOur results suggested that lockdown at the epicenter and social distancing effectively reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the early stage, but identification and isolation of patients, suspected cases and people with close contact at a community level is essential in further reduction of the daily increase rate of COVID-19.
Highlights
A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused huge damage to public health around the world
Patients infected by the virus showed typical clinical symptoms of fever, dry cough, dyspnea, headache, and pneumonia, which could
We found the relationship between the daily increase rate and cumulative cases or time can be used to assess the transmission trend and control efficiency of COVID19
Summary
A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused huge damage to public health around the world. A novel coronavirus (defined as SARS-CoV-2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses) emerged as a serious threat to the public health in China and around the world. There were concerns about the effectiveness or necessity of these measures taken for controlling the COVID-19 in China, and whether or not the virus could be well contained [4]. These concerns were soon removed with the successful control of the spread of COVID-19 in China. With the fast expansion of COVID-9 around the world, most countries affected have adopted similar quarantine measures as those taken by China to contain the spread of COVID-19
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