Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis

Abstract

This study independently analyses various scenarios of electrical energy generation and consumption in Egypt for the period between 2020 and 2050 using LEAP and utilizing data provided by the Egyptian authorities. The energy mix case is distinguished by two features; future demand is not certain and existence of relatively high surplus capacity. As for various expectations of demand increase, the present study assumed the continuation of the same demand change for the period between the years 2009 and 2019 to be extended until 2050, (REF A) and an annual increase of 4.46%, (REF B). Three more scenarios were analyzed. (NON) scenario assumes cancellation of plans to construct a nuclear power facility. Two other scenarios examined the increase of renewable share to 42% by the year 2035 (REN 42), and to 70% by the year 2050, (REN 70). The results show that the natural gas contribution will decline till reaching its peak of 61.5% by 2050 for (NON) scenario. However, this share will be less than 16.5% by 2045 for (REN.70) scenario. Whilst, nuclear share will be 4.6% by 2050 for (REF.A) scenario. Moreover, it is found that the renewable scenarios have the lowest long-term production cost compared to other scenarios.