Abstract
Sound estimates of future heat and electricity demand with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed for energy system planning, grid design, and evaluating demand-side management options and polices on regional and national levels. In this study, smart meter data on electricity consumption in buildings are combined with cross-sectional building information to model hourly electricity consumption within the household and service sectors on a regional basis in Norway. The same modeling approach is applied to model aggregate hourly district heat consumption in three different consumer groups located in Oslo. A comparison of modeled and metered hourly energy consumption shows that hourly variations and aggregate consumption per county and year are reproduced well by the models. However, for some smaller regions, modeled annual electricity consumption is over- or underestimated by more than 20%. Our results indicate that the presented method is useful for modeling the current and future hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock, but that larger and more detailed training datasets are required to improve the models, and more detailed building stock statistics on regional level are needed to generate useful estimates on aggregate regional energy consumption.
Highlights
The objective of this study is to show how smart meter data on energy consumption in buildings can be combined with cross-sectional building information, weather data, and calendric data to model aggregate hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock connected to the household and service sectors
Metered consumption is provided by Statistics Norway (SSB) [45,46]. 2010 was an unusually cold year, 2012 a consumption is provided by Statistics Norway (SSB) [45,46]. 2010 was an unusually cold year, 2012 a rather normal year, and 2014 an unusually warm year, with temperatures considerably above rather normal year, and 2014 an unusually warm year, with temperatures considerably above average average during summer and winter
Aggregate regional hourly electricity consumption in households and service sectors in each Norwegian county is estimated by using average characteristics and total number of buildings or dwellings as input data to the models, and model validation indicates that this simple method in general is useful
Summary
Electricity consumption has flattened since the year 2000 Plausible reasons for this development include higher energy prices, stricter building codes with respect to energy demand, reduced heat demand due to a milder climate, more energy-efficient electric appliances, the increased use of heat pumps, and the closing down of factories in energy-intensive industries. Total consumption of district heat is comparably low, it increased by 40% between 2011 and. The industrial sector, including energy-intensive branches like aluminum and ferro-alloys production and wood processing, represents the largest electricity consumer; its consumption exhibited a significant reduction in 2009 (Figure 2), which can be explained by the reduction in demand for products like steel and aluminum caused by the international financial crisis [2]. As a result of low electricity prices, electrical energy is largely used for space and domestic water heating in Norway, and part of the electricity consumption is strongly
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