Modeling a single season of Aedes albopictus populations based on host-seeking data in response to temperature and precipitation in eastern Tennessee.

Abstract

In the southern Appalachia of the U.S., Aedes mosquitoes maintain and transmit La Crosse virus (LACV) which causes La Crosse encephalitis, a neuroinvasive disease of children. In response to mosquito outbreaks, communities organize prevention, detection, and response measures that are dependent on local characteristics of the mosquito population and the community. Knowing Ae. albopictus is an accessory vector of LACV and a nuisance biter, our objective was to build a system of ordinary differential equations to model dynamics in a single season using our data and readily available environmental variables that can reflect the abundance and activity of Ae. albopictus. Consequently, we built an Ae. albopictus single-season mathematical model for eastern Tennessee to fit our 2013 mosquito collection data in order to understand the population fluctuations. We included precipitation, temperature, and rate of change of temperature in the model because Aedes mosquitoes oviposit desiccant tolerant eggs with peak activity occurring over 26° C and those data are readily available and used frequently as forecast predictors. Our ordinary differential equation model accurately fits the data and facilitates predictions and better understanding of Ae. albopictus populations in southern Appalachia.