Abstract
In this study the effects of commuting and demographic variables on the amount and distribution of outshopping were modeled using household-level survey data in which the proportion of expenditures within specific categories of goods were reported across neighboring retail market areas. The effects on the propensity to shop outside the core study area were estimated using the two-limit tobit and logit models. Influences on the relative distribution of that outshopping were modeled by multinomial logit. The multinomial logit and tobit models were shown to produce similar estimates, with empirical results indicating that retail sales leakages are increased for outcommuters for certain types of goods.
Highlights
The effects on outshopping behavior of commuting and income level are estimated by two-limit tobit and logit models, with additional estimation of the distribution of outshopping across competing market areas by multinomial logit
U.S Census data (2000) show that approximately 14 percent of Carson City workers commute to work in Washoe County, a number that is expected to increase with the continued growth of the Reno metropolitan area; and as outcommuting increases, so may the potential for increased retail sales leakages
The marginal effects for the multinomial logit indicate that the change is distributed primarily to the Reno area. Both the two-limit tobit model and the multinomial logit with share dependent variable model are useful econometric tools for modeling data that takes the form of a market share or proportion, when censoring exists as may be the case with share data
Summary
The effects on outshopping behavior of commuting and income level are estimated by two-limit tobit and logit models, with additional estimation of the distribution of outshopping across competing market areas by multinomial logit. Expanding employment in urban centers generally produces higher incomes in the surrounding areas, as those distinct municipalities are subsumed into bedroom communities for the larger city, agglomeration effects are likely to result in much of the retail trade sector being lost to the urban center (Parr and Denike 1970), impacting the tax base of the peripheral communities. Exacerbating this effect for Carson City is the growth of shopping opportunities in southern Reno, the area closest to Carson City.
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