Modeling a Risk-Based Dynamic Bus Schedule Problem under No-Notice Evacuation Incorporated with Dynamics of Disaster, Supply, and Demand Conditions

Abstract

Apart from private traffic, the evacuation of transit-dependent population is also an essential component of emergency preparedness, especially under no-notice evacuation scenarios with limit evacuation horizon. In literature, most bus-based evacuation models for no-notice evacuation are established under implicit assumptions of uniform evacuation horizon among different pick-up locations or fixed bus fleet in the evacuation area. These constraints will distance their models from real-world situations, where evacuation horizon is various due to spatial distribution of pick-up locations and fleet size of bus available for allocation will increase over time in no-notice evacuation. This research presents a risk-based bus schedule model which is differentiated from the vehicle routing problem (VRP) and bus evacuation problem (BEP) in literature, including the objective and the time-dependent parameters. A quantified definition of evacuation risk for pick-up location with concerns of disaster dynamics and time-varying supply-demand conditions is proposed in this paper as a criterion for bus allocation, also acting as a reflection of social equity to some extent. A notion of time-evolving disadvantageous evacuation units (DEU) is introduced to represent the pick-up locations selected for bus allocation with limited resource. The binary integer linear programming (BILP) named risk-based bus schedule model incorporated with DEU notion can provide a reference for resource allocation in stage of both evacuation planning and operation for transit-dependent population. The proposed model structure can effectively capture the changes of evacuation risk among pick-up locations over time to realize real-time bus schedule. Numerical experiments are conducted using the transportation network of the city of Xi’an, China, to test the performance of the model. The applicability and comparison of different bus evacuation models are also discussed in this paper. This research provides insights into dealing with disaster dynamics and time-varying supply conditions in realistic bus-based no-notice evacuation operations.