Abstract
The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was applied at six major estuaries along Florida’s Gulf Coast (Pensacola Bay, St. Andrews/Choctawhatchee Bays, Apalachicola Bay, Southern Big Bend, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor) to provide quantitative and spatial information on how coastal ecosystems may change with sea level rise (SLR) and to identify how this information can be used to inform adaption planning. High resolution LiDAR-derived elevation data was utilized under three SLR scenarios: 0.7 m, 1 m and 2 m through the year 2100 and uncertainty analyses were conducted on selected input parameters at three sites. Results indicate that the extent, spatial orientation and relative composition of coastal ecosystems at the study areas may substantially change with SLR. Under the 1 m SLR scenario, total predicted impacts for all study areas indicate that coastal forest (-69,308 ha; -18%), undeveloped dry land (-28,444 ha; -2%) and tidal flat (-25,556 ha; -47%) will likely face the greatest loss in cover by the year 2100. The largest potential gains in cover were predicted for saltmarsh (+32,922 ha; +88%), transitional saltmarsh (+23,645 ha; na) and mangrove forest (+12,583 ha; +40%). The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision. The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates. The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway.
Highlights
Coastal wetland systems and human communities will be substantially affected whether global sea level rises 0.18–0.59 m by 2100, as estimated by the IPCC (2007) [1], or at the higher rates based on more recent information and modeling [2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
At all the study areas, Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) predicts modest to substantial changes in coastal ecosystems due to sea level rise (SLR)
In the Pensacola Bay study area, SLAMM forecast simulations estimated that 18% (-6,408 ha) of study area coastal forest would be lost under the 1 m SLR scenario (Table 3)
Summary
Coastal wetland systems and human communities will be substantially affected whether global sea level rises 0.18–0.59 m by 2100, as estimated by the IPCC (2007) [1], or at the higher rates based on more recent information and modeling [2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. Sea level rise may substantially change coastal ecosystems globally by increasing dry-land loss due to submergence and erosion, wetland loss and change, flood damage, saltwater intrusion into surface and ground water, and by raising water tables and impeding drainage [13]. Coastal ecosystems such as beaches, dunes, barrier islands and marshes may be able to migrate landward as sea level rises, but if development or other impediments are in the way, these systems will be squeezed and lose spatial extent [14]. Coastal lagoons may suffer changes in circulation, tidal exchange and turbidity with sea level rise and may shrink in extent if blocked from shifting landward by the presence of developed areas [17, 18, 19]
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