Modeled performance of forage mixtures and annual crops grown in eastern Canada under climate change

Abstract

AbstractTimothy (Phleum pratense L.) is expected to be more affected by climate change than other forage grasses. Therefore, alternatives to timothy, such as tall fescue [Schedonorus arundinaceus (Shreb.) Dumort.], meadow fescue [S. pratensis (Huds.) P. Beauv.], or meadow bromegrass (Bromus biebersteinii Roem. & Schult.) should be explored. Our objective was to simulate and compare the yield and nutritive value of four alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)–grass mixtures and annual crops grown on two virtual dairy farms representative of eastern Canada under future climate conditions. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) was used for these projections under the reference (1971–2000), near future (2020–2049), and distant future (2050–2079) climates for two climatically contrasting agricultural areas in eastern Canada (eastern Quebec; southwestern Quebec). In both future periods, annual forage dry matter (DM) yields of the four alfalfa–grass mixtures are projected to increase because of additional harvests, with greater DM yield increases projected in the colder area than in the warmer area. In both areas, the highest yield increase is projected for alfalfa–tall fescue mixture and the lowest for alfalfa–timothy mixture. The nutritive value of all mixtures should increase due to a greater proportion of alfalfa. In both areas, yields of silage and grain corn (Zea mays L.), and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] are projected to increase, but not those of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). Tall fescue, meadow bromegrass, and meadow fescue are adequate alternatives to timothy grown in association with alfalfa under future climate conditions.