Model-agnostic meta-learning-based region-adaptive parameter adjustment scheme for influenza forecasting

Abstract

Deep learning models perform well when there is enough data available for training, but otherwise the performance deteriorates rapidly owing to the so-called data shortage problem. Recently, model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) was proposed to alleviate this problem by embedding common prior knowledge from different tasks into the initial parameters of the target model. Data shortages are very common in regional influenza predictions, and MAML also often struggles with regional influenza forecasting, especially when region-specific knowledge, such as peak timing or intensity, varies. In this paper, we propose a novel MAML-based parameter adjustment scheme for influenza forecasting, called MARAPAS. The fundamental idea of our scheme is to adjust the initial parameters obtained from common knowledge to a target region by using adjustment variables. We experimentally show that MARAPAS outperforms other MAML-based methods, in terms of root mean square error and Pearson correlation coefficient. Particularly, this scheme improves the forecasting performance by up to 34 % compared with that of the state-of-the-art schemes. We also show the robust forecasting accuracy of our scheme and demonstrate its applicability by performing zero-shot COVID-19 forecasting.