Abstract
Abstract Model verification has traditionally relied upon in situ observations, which typically exist on a sparse network, making nonsurface model forecast verification difficult. Given increasing model resolution, supplemental observational datasets are needed. Multiple-Doppler wind retrievals using a national network of radars provide an opportunity to assess the accuracy of wind forecasts at multiple levels, as well as verification within a three-dimensional domain. Wind speed and direction verification results are presented for a 9-day period of forecasts from the French Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale-Western Mediterranean (AROME-WMED) model using multiple-Doppler retrievals from the French Application Radar à la Météorologie Infrasynoptique (ARAMIS) network. For the analyzed period, relationships were found that suggest that errors are not only linked to forecasted evolution of meteorological phenomena, but are sensitive to terrain height below the analyzed level as well as mesoscale processes. The spatial distribution of errors at initialization and forecast times shows that biases are generally independent of location and terrain height at initialization, but that the impact of terrain below the analysis level affects the forecasted wind magnitude and direction over time. These comparisons illustrate that multiple-Doppler wind retrieval measurements accurately identify model error and can serve as an invaluable dataset for model verification.
Highlights
Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) continues to benefit from enhanced computing power, enabling higher-resolution simulations to be produced on increasingly shorter time scales
Results from this study show that multiple-Doppler wind fields successfully allow for high-resolution (;1–2 km) model accuracy assessment and can serve as a viable complementary dataset for use in forecast verification techniques
Results of our AROME-WMED wind magnitude and direction forecast verification at 2 km mean sea level (MSL) are presented using multiple-Doppler syntheses from the Application Radar a la Meteorologie Infrasynoptique (ARAMIS) national network of Doppler radars over a 9-day analysis period during 1–9 November 2011
Summary
Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) model at 2.5-km resolution over all of France, including parts of surrounding countries (Seity et al 2011). Radars used by Bousquet et al (2008a) are part of the French Application Radar a la Meteorologie Infrasynoptique (ARAMIS) radar network, which consists of 24 radars nationwide, and have recently been included in a real-time, nationwide 3D wind retrieval system (Bousquet and Tabary 2013) The availability of these data provides an excellent opportunity for use in verification of high-resolution model output over multiple forecast periods. An extended period of precipitation over a broad portion of southern France provided an excellent opportunity to test the use of multiple-Doppler syntheses for model wind assessment over numerous forecast runs. These syntheses are possible on a real-time basis using the dense ARAMIS national French radar network and recently. Small errors that may result from a deviation of the 800-hPa surface from 2 km MSL are minimized, since the analysis data are created from domain-wide or multiple forecast averages
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