Abstract
<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Grojogan Sewu visitors experience a significant increase during school holidays, year-end holidays, and also Eid al-Fitr holidays. The determination of Eid Al-Fitr uses the Hijriyah calendar so that the occurrence of Eid al-Fitr will progress 10 days when viewed from the Gregorian calendar, this causes calendar variations. The objective of this paper is to apply a calendar variation model based on time series regression and SARIMA models for forecasting the number of visitors in Grojogan Sewu. The data are Grojogan Sewu visitors from January 2009 until December 2019. The results show that time series regression with calendar variation yields a better forecast compared to the SARIMA model. It can be seen from the value of root mean square error (<em>RMSE</em>) out-sample of time series regression with calendar variation is less than of SARIMA model.</p><p><strong>Keywords: </strong>Calendar variation, time series regression, SARIMA, Grojogan Sewu</p>
Highlights
Grojogan Sewu terletak di Kabupaten Karanganyar Jawa Tengah
The results show that time series regression with calendar variation yields a better forecast compared to the Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) model
S. Time Series Analysis and Its Applications with R Examples
Summary
Gambar 1 menunjukkan bahwa pada bulan September 2009, 2010, 2011,2012, bulan Agustus 2013, bulan Juli dan Agustus 2014, bulan juli 2015, bulan Juli dan Agustus 2016, bulan Juni 2017 dan bulan Juni 2018 jumlah pengunjung Grojogan Sewu signifikan tinggi. Pada bulan-bulan tersebut jumlah pengunjung tinggi karena bersamaan dengan adanya hari libur perayaan Idul Fitri seperti yang terdapat pada. Selain itu data pengunjung Grojogan Sewu juga mengalami kenaikan yang signifikan pada setiap bulan Juni, Juli dan Desember. Dengan menggunakan metode estimasi Ordinary Least Square (OLS), diperoleh model regresi runtun waktu dengan variabel dummy variasi kalender dan musiman: dengan Vt merupakan variabel dummy saat bulan perayaan Hari Raya Idul Fitri, merupakan variabel dummy untuk bulan Januari sampai dengan. 4.2 Analisis SARIMA Gambar 1 menunjukkan bahwa plot data pengunjung Grojogan Sewu tidak stasioner. Plot ACF dan PACF data pengunjung Grojogan Sewu terdapat pada Gambar 2
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