Abstract
Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland. This study presents an individual-based stochastic model for the Ebre Delta as an example of this appliance. Based on the Monte-Carlo method, the model simulates the dynamics of the spread of AIV among wild birds in a natural park following introduction of an infected bird. Data on wild bird species population, apparent AIV prevalence recorded in wild birds during the period of study, and ecological information on factors such as behaviour, contact rates or patterns of movements of waterfowl were incorporated as inputs of the model. From these inputs, the model predicted those species that would introduce most of AIV in different periods and those species and areas that would be at high risk as a consequence of the spread of these AIV incursions. This method can serve as a complementary tool to previous studies to optimize the allocation of the limited AI surveillance resources in a local complex ecosystem. However, this study indicates that in order to predict the evolution of the spread of AIV at the local scale, there is a need for further research on the identification of host factors involved in the interspecies transmission of AIV.
Highlights
Avian influenza (AI) is a dynamically evolving disease caused by highly contagious viruses, which affect a wide variety of avian and mammalian species, including humans
The model was based on the Monte-Carlo method and integrated information about the distribution, behaviour and affinity patterns of waterfowl populations living in this wetland, as well as surveillance data reported in Europe on the prevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in migrant birds that may act as introducers within the period of study
The model predicted that during the spring and summer most AIV would be introduced by Mallards and Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) (29%), followed by 3% for other species belonging to the Anatidae or Podicipedidae families
Summary
Avian influenza (AI) is a dynamically evolving disease caused by highly contagious viruses, which affect a wide variety of avian and mammalian species, including humans. Many scientific publications have documented the importance of wild aquatic birds as natural reservoirs of avian influenza viruses (AIV), especially Anseriformes and Charadriiformes [1,2,3,4,5]. Some of these studies have evidenced that AIV may persist in the environment for extended periods under favourable conditions, and both continuous birdto-bird and waterborne transmission are considered to be the most frequent modes of transmission and maintenance of AI infection in wild birds [4,5,6,7,8,9]. The selection of species for sampling had to be adapted to the avian population in each region, including the predominant species and population sizes, seasonality of migration patterns, migratory flyways, and mixing of species in particular habitats [11,12,13]
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