Model Regresi Hurdle Negative Binomial (HNB) untuk Pemodelan Konsumsi Rokok di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah

Abstract

The average expenditure on cigarettes per capita in Sulawesi Tengah Province has increased in 2020. There are several factors that can affect a person's cigarette consumption including gender, age, education and health. To model cigarette consumption with several influencing factors can be use the poison regression model or the Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model. However, the two regression models cannot solve the excess zero and overdispersion problems so use the Hurdle Negative Binomial (HNB) regression model. The results of the analysis of cigarette consumption data in Central Sulawesi Province using the HNB model provide the best modeling results compared to the poisson regression model and the ZIP model because it has the smallest Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) value. The results of testing the factors that significantly influence cigarette consumption in Central Sulawesi Province in the HNB regression model, namely the count model are gender, age and health. Whereas in the zerohurdle model, it is gender, age and education.