Model procene strategijskog okruženja sistema odbrane

Abstract

Strategic environmental assessment enables consideration of situation at some time in order to ensure the development of the defense system so that it can respond to the future security challenges, risks and threats. In order to enhance the level of objectivity of such process, a model of strategic environmental assessment of the defense system has been made by quantitative analysis of the contents of different literature in the sphere of management, security and defense. Since the process is complex, the model is based on the combination of scientific and managerial methods. Preconditions for the application of scenario development model are created by identification of the environmental factors that most affect the defense system, as well as by collection of data on values of such factors in the past and determination of trends of their development and effect on the defense system in the future. Potential effects of factors from the defense system environment are considered by scenario development of the future environment and objectivity and possibility to predict the future environment are increased. Despite increase in objectivity, it is impossible to completely remove the subjective effect on environmental assessment results. The solutions presented in this paper are a possible way to enhance strategic environmental assessment process not only of the defense system, but other organisational systems, as well.