Model of two-phase production from gas wells conning water inspired by natural processes

Abstract

Water coning is one of the most challenging problem in the petroleum industry, because it can affect the well productivity and increase production costs. The proper forecasting of the production profile is very important, but it is difficult to find the exact relationship between produced gas and water. In this study, we propose a novel mathematical model for the two-phase production forecasting of gas wells conning water. The developed model is based on the two species Lotka–Volterra model and includes a system of two ordinary differential equations. The proposed model uses the analogies of the two-phase flow in the reservoir to the natural competition processes. The developed model was applied to some real industrial examples. The results show that the model accurately trends the historical data and ensures reliable production forecast. Hence, the proposed model can be a useful tool to predict future performance of gas wells coning water.