Model of short-term forecasting liner maritime transport in the port system

Antonija Mišura,Tatjana Stanivuk,Alen Jugović,Joško Šoda

doi:10.31217/p.34.2.17

Abstract

One of the preconditions for good quality management of seaports is forecasting the traffic according to the number of passengers and the number of vehicles; in this way it is possible to plan and prepare activities for the smooth operation of the ports. This paper researches the port system as part of the coastal liner maritime transport. The set hypothesis is that the model of forecasting the traffic could be presented as a function of two variables. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is used to select the forecasting parameters. Based on the choice of parameters, using the Least Squares Method (LSM), the trend analysis is performed to choose the forecasting functions for maritime liner transport on the example of the Split City port. The statistical analysis on the choosed forecasting model using the coefficient of determination r2 and adjusted r2 model is performed to confirm the choice.

Highlights

Passenger seaports are a significant factor in the development of coastal liner maritime transport, transport in general, tourism and economic activities, as well as in meeting the transport needs of passengers
The trend analysis process shall be performed by the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method, based on the equations (18) and (19)
The research has been conducted on different models for traffic forecasting within the existing system, on the example of the port of Split as one of the largest ports in the Mediterranean, with a significant share of passengers and vehicles in the Croatian coastal liner maritime transport system

Summary

Introduction

Passenger seaports are a significant factor in the development of coastal liner maritime transport, transport in general, tourism and economic activities, as well as in meeting the transport needs of passengers. They are a significant mean of integration into the global economic system [1] They are terminals whose function is manifested through accommodation of ships, quality reception of passengers, comfortable stay of passengers at the terminal, and efficient reception from other transport branches [2]. They are reflected by the steady increase in the number of passengers and vehicles in maritime transport, which causes rapid changes to which ports must quickly respond so that the system can function smoothly. One of the most important elements for good operating of ports is forecasting the number of passengers and vehicles in coastal liner maritime transport, as the increasing amount of traffic in this segment directly influences the constant and intensive changes of the port system

Methods

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Discussion

Conclusion