Model of settlement carrying capacity in Semarang Regency in 2021-2040

Abstract

Semarang Regency is one of the regencies/cities in Central Java Province which is incorporated into the KEDUNGSEPUR regional system. Semarang Regency has a population of 1,053,094 in 2020 with a population growth rate of 1.28%. The increasing population from year to year will certainly affect the environment quality. The population that exceeds the environment carrying capacity can result in limited availability of infrastructure and natural resources. In regional development, the environment carrying capacity is a benchmark for creating a sustainable environment. The aim of this research is to compile a model of the settlement carrying capacity for the next 20 years so that it is known when the settlement carrying capacity in Semarang Regency is exceeded. The research method used in this study is a quantitative method through spatial analysis and population projections. The results of the analysis show that the land area suitable for settlement areas in Semarang Regency is 23,864.4 hectares. The recommended treatment measures to overcome the low settlements carrying capacity of Semarang Regency are population distribution that leads to six districts that still have a DDPm value of >1, controlling population growth, the direction of vertical housing development, and optimizing regional development in each urban center.