Model of Prophylactic Efficiency of Influenza Virus Vaccine Corrected to the Antigenic Distance Hypothesis

Abstract

The aim of the study is to find a quantitative relationship between antigenic distances (AD) and vaccination effectiveness (VE) and investigate the response of VE to changes in AD.Material and methods. Through the epidemiological data of three influenza seasons in Canada, interpreted within the framework of the antigenic distance hypothesis (ADH), the introduction of the correction factor into the model for estimating VE was substantiated considering the antigenic relationship between the previous season vaccine (V1), the current season vaccine (V2) and the circulating epidemic strain (e).Results. A quantitative relationship between VE and AD was found, reproducing the results of epidemiological observation of two groups of people: vaccinated in the previous and current seasons (V1+V2) and vaccinated only in the current season (0+V2). The difference in the response of VE to different indicators of AD was found and allowing to use only one significant indicator.Conclusion. Тhe model proposed relates the microbiological indicators AD with epidemiological characteristic of VE. The model extends the analysis, allowing to use it as an assessment tool for the expected changes in vaccine effectiveness in various settings of the ADH hypothesis experiment.