MODEL HYBRID NONLINEAR REGRESSION LOGISTIC (NLR) –DOUBLE EXPONENSIAL SMOOTHING (DES) DAN PENERAPANNYA PADA JUMLAH KASUS KUMULATIF COVID-19 DI INDONESIA DAN BELANDA

Abstract

The economic relationship between Indonesia and the Netherlands is a good trade relationship, but the spread of COVID-19 disrupts the two countries' economies. Both countries need to have an explanation regarding the condition of COVID-19 to raise economic market sentiment. Based on this, Hybrid and non-hybrid models are used to predict the dispersion conditions and compare them through the MAPE value. The double-exponential nonlinear logistic regression hybrid model on the cumulative number of COVID-19 is not suitable for use in the Netherlands COVID-19 cases but is suitable for use in the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases Indonesia. The hybrid nonlinear regression logistic-double exponential model is one way to optimize MAPE, especially in training data. Based on the hybrid non-client regression logistic model, the peak incidence of Covid-19 in the Netherlands is estimated at 22 November 2020, and the hybrid nonlinear regression logistic-Double exponential model predicts that the peak of Covid-19 occurs in Indonesia on 28 November 2020. the Netherlands wave is around 2.83 percent and Indonesia 1.62 percent. Therefore the decline in Indonesia is predicted to be faster, but the Netherlands will reach the peak of the Indonesian news wave.