Model FORRUS: Exploratory interactive analysis of spatio‐temporal forecasting data for evaluation forest biodiversity

Abstract

This work attempts to bridge the gap between the research work done on developing the framework for measuring the sustainability of forest management and the lack of similar work on developing criteria and indicators (C&I) as a formal part of the planning system. We combine the forest ecosystem model FORRUS‐S and an analytical module for interactive visualization to analyze the spatial and temporal forecasting data and to examine those forest parameters that are related to the evaluation of forest biodiversity. The computer program package FORRUS‐S (Chumachenko et al., 2003), which has been developed for the simulation modeling of forest ecosystems dynamics, consists of a model of the natural development of a multi‐species, uneven‐aged stand, a model of exogenous influence (including silvi‐cultural activities) and a set of accessory programs (standard GIS, reference databases, modules recording input and output information, analytical module, 3D visualization module, etc.). The model utilizes the standard input data that have traditionally been used in Russian forestry research/management (Ed‐ confirm which is more accurate and delete the other) and that are available for virtually the entire Russian territory. The paper describes the results of computational experiments under different forest management scenarios (natural development, legal forestry, and forest practice with infringements) over 100 years. We discuss the results of forecast using a sample forest stand located in the Moscow region. The case study shows that FORRUS‐S, in combination with visualization and analysis of forecasting data, is an effective tool both for selecting sets of forest biodiversity indicators at the local level and for their eventual prioritization. This modelling approach is highly transparent, easy to understand, and offers a convenient environment for participatory decision making by forest managers.