Model Formulation and Comparative Analysis of daily confirmed cases due to novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic 2020

Abstract

According to the world health organization (WHO) situation report one dated January 21, 2020 highlighted the spread of unknown cause detected in Wuhan city, Hubei Province China which has been subsequently notified as COVID-19. In a span of two month this virus has shown its atrocious destructive nature all over the world as a pandemic. The infection rate and the death rate have increased tremendously day by day. WHO reported the number of confirmed cases as on May 03, 2020 was around three million three hundred forty-nine thousand seven hundred and eighty-six while the total deaths all over the world was two hundred thirty-eight thousand six hundred and twenty-eight. In the present work, the mathematical modelling of the daily reported COVID-19 cases in country viz. Italy, Spain, United States of America (USA), China and India have been presented. The models have been formulated on the basic of data reported in the WHO situation report 1-103 during the period January 21, to May 03, using different statistical techniques. Three types of models viz. polynomial, Gaussian and Fourier have been developed and the best fitted model can be used to predict the future trends of the new COVID-19 cases based on the current situation. The comparative analysis has been done and the nature of COVID-19 pandemic has been presented in the form mathematical model. The future prediction of new affected cases can be done with the help of these models. This paper also presented how different countries are fighting against this pandemic situation with a great challenge of protecting huge population.