Model for Impact Assessment of the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund of the European Union in Bulgaria: SIBILA (English Version)

Abstract

Българската версия на тази разработка може да бъде изтеглена от ту: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2290694This technical documentation is prepared within the project “Development of econometric model for impact assessment of the EU Structural and Cohesion Funds”. The documentation is an indivisible part from the developed macroeconomic model for impact assessment of the Structural and Cohesion Funds in Bulgaria.The aim of the constructed model is to allow the assessment of the SCF resources impact on the main macroeconomic indicators. The principles, methods, techniques and the instruments, described in this documentation, correspond to the impact assessment practices in the EU and the modern approaches to macroeconomic modeling.The model consists of 170 equations, including econometric estimates, macroeconomic identities and calibrated dependencies (on the basis of stable historical links and applying existing knowledge). The model is developed in a specialised software environment (EViews 7.0) but the very use of the model requires work only with electronic tables (Excel). This is achieved through a function, incorporated in the model, for automatic extraction of input data from electronic tables prepared in advance and a possibility is also programmed in the model to export the results in electronic tables. In this way, work with the model is practically narrowed down to changing the model input data in Excel (at the user discretion), launching the model with the help of the specialised EViews software and opening the exported results in an output Excel document.The model allows tracing the net effects from the structural funds at various levels of aggregation – from the full effect from all resources to impact assessment of each operational programme, priority and sub-priority. In this way, the effect of a target combination of structural instruments can be estimated, including the impact, observed at various levels of absorption of the funds.