Model for forecasting the dynamics and growth of the throughput of the Central Asian transport corridor lines

Abstract

This article has taken into account the importance of international corridors in Central Asia, and has provided data on the importance of rail transport in the state economy and the efficiency of projects when developing railways. The weakness and lack of import and export logistics functions in the hinterland regions creates a bottleneck that limits the development of the external economy and trade. Identification of development paths using the example of the Akhangaran-Tukimachi-Syrdarya line based on modelling of carrying capacity and comparison with the actual freight flow for rational regulation and rationing of train throughput. The method of approximation has been applied to forecast the dynamics of capacity and throughput growth on the line in question. A forecasting model was developed that corresponds to the nature of changes in the trend of the freight traffic under study. It will allow to foresee difficulties in the transportation process, to work out the line development stages to improve the carrying capacity of hauls, to plan the work of reloading stations correctly and to organise the rational use of railway transport means. As an example, the Akhangaran - Tukimachi - Syrdarya line is the main transit direction which affects all the work of the railway of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Improvement of the line for passing transit and local freight flows will improve the competitiveness of the railway in freight transportation.