Model for Assessing the Effectiveness of the Formation of Sustainable Supply Chains of Raw Materials by Timber Industry Enterprises

Abstract

The paper presents a model for evaluating the effectiveness of enterprise decisions on the formation of the vector of procurement of raw materials at the timber exchange based on the volume of costs incurred. Enterprises usually set themselves the goal of incurring costs no higher than the target costs, so it becomes very important to take this factor into account during the process of evaluating efficiency. The evaluator does not always know the level of target costs, in response to which such levels are generated in the work, and for each of them the effectiveness is evaluated and an average value is taken. To calculate the efficiency indicator, a non-linear economic and mathematical model was built, which differs in the calculation of the boundary costs (efficiency boundaries) that determine the categories of efficiency. The article applies the principle of the golden ratio to determine the boundaries and categories of effectiveness. The aim of the work is to draw up a mathematical model and a heuristic algorithm that allows for evaluating the effectiveness of a decision made at the enterprise for the formation of supply chains for raw materials, which is distinguished by the ability to take into account the generated different indicators of target costs and calculate the boundaries and categories of efficiency. The hypothesis of the study is the possibility of assessing the effectiveness of the decision made at the enterprise in the formation of sustainable supply chains of raw materials, provided that the evaluator is not aware of the level of targeted costs. The nonlinearity of the mathematical model predetermined the construction of a heuristic algorithm for finding the solution. With the estimate obtained, the problem of borders appears due to economic reasons. To solve this problem, the methods of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic were used. The algorithm and model were tested on the data of one of the enterprises of the Primorsky Territory. In the course of pilot application, it was shown that the boundaries of efficiency change and, as a result, have different categories of efficiency at different values of the target costs due to the nature of the efficiency assessment function. The results of the model and algorithm test showed the effectiveness of the efficiency evaluation scheme.