Abstract
Most operational flood alert systems (FASs) are based on real-time observations of rainfall, runoff, and simultaneous simulation of hydrologic and hydraulic models that are often augmented with weather forecast data. However, implementation of such a system can be cost prohibitive. Alternatively, a model FAS (MFAS) can effectively be developed for a channel section using reporting stream gauges measured against frequency-based design storms and unsteady-state hydraulic models. A MFAS is based on the principle of stage-to-stage crest relationship of river forecasting and in principle is similar to model floodplain maps produced on the basis of frequency-based design storms with the applications of steady-state hydraulic models. A MFAS is based on the predictable nature of the hydraulic response of channel cross sections and the hypothesis that sufficient warning time can be derived from quantitative estimation of flood wave propagation time from upstream to downstream. Based on these concepts, a model, yet real-time, FAS is developed specifically for the Houston Theater District, where heavy flooding during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 caused significant structural, equipment, and records damage, as well as loss of lives.
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