Model evaluation of target product profiles of an infant vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in a developed country setting

Timothy Kinyanjui,Wirichada Pan-Ngum,Sompob Saralamba,Sylvia Taylor,Lisa White,D James Nokes

doi:10.1016/j.jvacx.2020.100055

Abstract

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract disease in children worldwide and is a significant cause of hospital admissions in young children in England. No RSV vaccine has been licensed but a number are under development. In this work, we present two structurally distinct mathematical models, parameterized using RSV data from the UK, which have been used to explore the effect of introducing an RSV paediatric vaccine to the National programme. We have explored different vaccine properties, and dosing regimens combined with a range of implementation strategies for RSV control. The results suggest that vaccine properties that confer indirect protection have the greatest effect in reducing the burden of disease in children under 5 years. The findings are reinforced by the concurrence of predictions from the two models with very different epidemiological structure. The approach described has general application in evaluating vaccine target product profiles.

Highlights

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was first recovered in 1955 from symptomatic chimpanzees and was known as the chimpanzee coryza agent [1]
We have presented an analysis of two mathematical models describing the transmission of RSV using data from the UK and explored the short term impact of an RSV vaccine with different properties and dosing schedules
The Boosting and Waning of Immunity (BWI) model tends to overestimate the burden of RSV hospitalisations in the first few months of life i.e. for children aged between 1 and 8 months

Summary

Introduction

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was first recovered in 1955 from symptomatic chimpanzees and was known as the chimpanzee coryza agent [1]. Soon after this discovery, Chanock et al [2,3] isolated the virus in infants with severe lower respiratory tract infections with this work suggestive of an important role played by RSV in causing severe disease. While in absolute terms the burden of RSV is predominantly borne by developing countries, the rate of early childhood hospitalization for RSV acute lower respiratory tract infection. The infectious potential of reinfections is not fully established, though it has been shown in a household setting that the secondary attack following introduction is significantly lower for individual who are asymptomatic and shed less virus or for a shorter duration [14]

Methods

Results

Conclusion